Burnley 1–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats | Championship

Burnley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Plymouth

J. Brownhill 26' (pen)

10/1/2024

Championship · Round 8Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Burnley61%

×Draw24%

Plymouth15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.66

Burnley

1.66

Plymouth

0.66

Burnley creates 152% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.32

creates per match

0.64

0.68

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Burnley

1.32

Plymouth

0.64

allows per match

Burnley

0.68

Plymouth

1.99

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Burnley+0.29scores more

Plymouth+0.07on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

85%

Burnley or Plymouth

76%

Draw or Plymouth

39%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

34%

Plymouth wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

81%

Burnley 2+ goals

49%

Burnley 3+ goals

23%

Plymouth 1+ goals

48%

Plymouth 2+ goals

14%

Plymouth 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

81%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 18 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.99 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.32 + Plymouth defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.66

Plymouth attack 0.64 + Burnley defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Burnley scores more

61%

level

24%

Plymouth scores more

15%

Burnley at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Brownhill

Burnley · M

7.6

Match Events

26'

J. BrownhillPenalty

33'

CJ Egan-Riley

66'

B. Mumba← N. Ogbeta

66'

M. Bundu← I. Cissoko

72'

J. Sarmiento← L. Koleosho

81'

C. Wright← R. Al Hajj

81'

M. Sorinola← V. Pálsson

82'

J. Rodríguez← L. Foster

82'

J. Laurent← H. Mejbri

89'

J. Hatch← D. Gyabi

90+2'

H. Massengo← J. Cullen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyPlymouth

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots7

1.38Expected Goals (xG)0.56

7Corners1

14Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target0

5Off Target6

3Blocked1

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

476Total Passes515

394Accurate Passes426

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

-0.05Goals Prevented-0.05

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1