Plymouth 1–2 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Plymouth

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bolton

R. Curtis 57'

M. Boateng 70' (OG)

J. Kenny 49' (pen)

4/3/2026

League One · Round 41Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Plymouth48%

×Draw23%

Bolton29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.38

Plymouth

1.84

Bolton

1.38

Plymouth creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

2.28

creates per match

1.51

1.25

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Plymouth

2.28

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

Plymouth

1.25

Bolton

1.41

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

71%

Plymouth or Bolton

77%

Draw or Bolton

52%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

27%

Bolton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

84%

Plymouth 2+ goals

55%

Plymouth 3+ goals

28%

Bolton 1+ goals

75%

Bolton 2+ goals

40%

Bolton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

62%

Bolton (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.84

Bolton attack 1.51 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Plymouth scores more

48%

level

23%

Bolton scores more

29%

Plymouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

R. Curtis

Plymouth · M

8.0

Match Events

18'

Josh Sheehan

43'

John McAtee

45+2'

Rúben Rodrigues

46'

C. Forino-Joseph← T. Gale

49'

J. KennyPenalty

57'

R. Curtis↳ H. Kane

58'

L. Tolaj← O. Oseni

58'

W. Harding← J. MacKenzie

64'

C. Christie← R. Rodrigues

64'

M. Burstow← J. Kenny

70'

M. BoatengOwn goal

71'

C. Watts← O. Dale

80'

X. Amaechi← J. Edwards

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthBolton

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots9

4Corners4

16Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots9

4On Target2

7Off Target5

4Blocked2

10Inside Box8

5Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

310Total Passes334

219Accurate Passes233

71%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1