Plymouth 2–0 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Plymouth

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bolton

R. Hardie 88'

N. Ennis 34'

8/27/2022

League One · Round 6Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Plymouth50%

×Draw22%

Bolton28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.40

Plymouth

1.95

Bolton

1.40

Plymouth creates 39% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.51

creates per match

1.32

1.47

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Plymouth

2.51

Bolton

1.32

allows per match

Plymouth

1.47

Bolton

1.40

-0.80scores less than expected

finishing

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

Plymouth-0.80scores less

Bolton-0.72scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

72%

Plymouth or Bolton

78%

Draw or Bolton

50%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

29%

Bolton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

86%

Plymouth 2+ goals

58%

Plymouth 3+ goals

31%

Bolton 1+ goals

75%

Bolton 2+ goals

41%

Bolton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

64%

Bolton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.47 · 7 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.51 + Bolton defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Bolton attack 1.32 + Plymouth defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Plymouth scores more

50%

level

22%

Bolton scores more

28%

Plymouth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

N. Lonwijk

Plymouth · D

7.7

Match Events

34'

N. Ennis↳ N. Lonwijk

40'

Niall Ennis

53'

Joe Edwards

57'

M. Whittaker← F. Azaz

57'

A. Randell← J. Houghton

64'

Conor Bradley

67'

A. Bakayoko← E. Kachunga

70'

R. Hardie← N. Ennis

75'

O. Afolayan← K. Dempsey

75'

K. Sadlier← J. Iredale

85'

M. Gillesphey← B. Mumba

85'

J. Wilson← B. Galloway

88'

R. Hardie↳ M. Whittaker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthBolton

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots14

2Corners10

9Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots14

4On Target4

5Off Target4

2Blocked6

8Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

295Total Passes412

181Accurate Passes296

61%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides3