Plus Ultra 0–0 Mar Menor: Result & Stats

Plus Ultra

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mar Menor

10/20/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Plus Ultra17%

×Draw26%

Mar Menor57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plus UltraExpected goals in this matchMar Menor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

1.54

Plus Ultra

0.70

Mar Menor

1.54

Mar Menor creates 120% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 26 away

0.89

creates per match

1.27

1.81

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Plus Ultra

0.89

Mar Menor

1.27

allows per match

Plus Ultra

1.81

Mar Menor

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

Mar Menor →

0–011%

0–116%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw

43%

Plus Ultra or Mar Menor

74%

Draw or Mar Menor

83%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

Mar Menor wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

50%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

16%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals

79%

Mar Menor 2+ goals

45%

Mar Menor 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

23%

Mar Menor (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Plus Ultra scores more

17%

level

26%

Mar Menor scores more

57%

Mar Menor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff