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Mar Menor vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mar Menor
Mar Menor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 28Estadio El Pitín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mar Menor69%
×Draw19%
Plus Ultra12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mar Menor
2.13
Plus Ultra
0.75

Mar Menor creates 184% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 63 away

creates per match

Mar Menor
1.71
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Mar Menor
0.71
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw
88%
Mar Menor or Plus Ultra
81%
Draw or Plus Ultra
31%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+
44%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals
88%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
63%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
35%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
53%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
17%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)
85%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.13

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Mar Menor scores more
69%
level
19%
Plus Ultra scores more
12%

Mar Menor at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mar Menor vs Plus Ultra

Mar Menor beat Plus Ultra 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Pitín in San Javier.