Plus Ultra 2–0 Huércal Overa: Result & Stats

Plus Ultra

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Huércal Overa

1/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Plus Ultra36%

×Draw27%

Huércal Overa37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plus UltraExpected goals in this matchHuércal Overa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.30

Plus Ultra

1.28

Huércal Overa

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 47 away

0.89

creates per match

0.79

1.81

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Plus Ultra

0.89

Huércal Overa

0.79

allows per match

Plus Ultra

1.81

Huércal Overa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

Huércal Overa →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw

63%

Plus Ultra or Huércal Overa

73%

Draw or Huércal Overa

64%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

16%

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

72%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

37%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

14%

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

73%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

37%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

49%

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.28

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Plus Ultra scores more

36%

level

27%

Huércal Overa scores more

37%

Huércal Overa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huércal Overa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plus Ultra vs Huércal Overa

Plus Ultra beat Huércal Overa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.

Plus Ultra vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Plus Ultra vs Huércal Overa