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Huércal Overa vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
6/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 10Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huércal Overa58%
×Draw23%
Plus Ultra19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
1.80
Plus Ultra
0.92

Huércal Overa creates 96% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 63 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
81%
Huércal Overa or Plus Ultra
77%
Draw or Plus Ultra
42%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
33%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
83%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
54%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
27%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
60%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
23%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
75%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.80

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
58%
level
23%
Plus Ultra scores more
19%

Huércal Overa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Huércal Overa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Huércal Overa 3–0 Plus Ultra

Huércal Overa beat Plus Ultra 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Hornillo in Huércal-Overa.