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Plus Ultra vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
CANC
00:00
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 35Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Plus Ultra32%
×Draw26%
Cartagena FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plus Ultra
1.21
Cartagena FC
1.45

Cartagena FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 44 away

creates per match

Plus Ultra
0.89
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Plus Ultra
1.81
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw
57%
Plus Ultra or Cartagena FC
74%
Draw or Cartagena FC
68%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+
13%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals
70%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
34%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
12%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
77%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
42%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
43%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Plus Ultra scores more
32%
level
26%
Cartagena FC scores more
43%

Cartagena FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cartagena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plus Ultra vs Cartagena FC — Match Preview

Plus Ultra face Cartagena FC on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Plus Ultra host Cartagena FC at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.