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Cartagena FC vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
12/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC54%
×Draw23%
Plus Ultra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.87
Plus Ultra
1.17

Cartagena FC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 63 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
76%
Cartagena FC or Plus Ultra
77%
Draw or Plus Ultra
46%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
30%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
85%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
56%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
29%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
69%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
33%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
69%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.87

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
54%
level
23%
Plus Ultra scores more
24%

Cartagena FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cartagena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena FC vs Plus Ultra

Cartagena FC beat Plus Ultra 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.