Plaza Colonia 0–1 Fenix: Result & Stats

Plaza Colonia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fenix

G. Colman 90'

5/9/2026

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 1Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Plaza Colonia37%

×Draw30%

Fenix33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plaza ColoniaExpected goals in this matchFenix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.00

Plaza Colonia

1.09

Fenix

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 24 away

1.23

creates per match

1.17

0.84

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Plaza Colonia

1.23

Fenix

1.17

allows per match

Plaza Colonia

0.84

Fenix

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Fenix+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Colonia ↓

Fenix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Plaza Colonia or draw

67%

Plaza Colonia or Fenix

70%

Draw or Fenix

63%

Winning margin

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+

15%

Fenix wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals

66%

Plaza Colonia 2+ goals

30%

Plaza Colonia 3+ goals

10%

Fenix 1+ goals

63%

Fenix 2+ goals

26%

Fenix 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)

53%

Fenix (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Colonia at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.84 · 43 matches

Fenix away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Colonia attack 1.23 + Fenix defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Fenix attack 1.17 + Plaza Colonia defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Plaza Colonia scores more

37%

level

30%

Fenix scores more

33%

Plaza Colonia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

90'

G. Colman

Plaza

Fenix

Manager: Luis Mena

Manager: I. Pallas