Plaza Colonia 1–1 Fenix: Result & Stats

Plaza Colonia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fenix

A. Pérez 56'

A. Ocampo 76' (pen)

6/24/2023

Primera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 3Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Plaza Colonia38%

×Draw28%

Fenix34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plaza ColoniaExpected goals in this matchFenix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.13

Plaza Colonia

1.21

Fenix

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 65 away

1.04

creates per match

1.20

1.06

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Plaza Colonia

1.04

Fenix

1.20

allows per match

Plaza Colonia

1.06

Fenix

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Fenix+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Colonia ↓

Fenix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Plaza Colonia or draw

66%

Plaza Colonia or Fenix

72%

Draw or Fenix

62%

Winning margin

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+

16%

Fenix wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals

70%

Plaza Colonia 2+ goals

34%

Plaza Colonia 3+ goals

12%

Fenix 1+ goals

68%

Fenix 2+ goals

31%

Fenix 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)

53%

Fenix (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Colonia at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Fenix away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.38 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Colonia attack 1.04 + Fenix defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fenix attack 1.20 + Plaza Colonia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Plaza Colonia scores more

38%

level

28%

Fenix scores more

34%

Plaza Colonia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Estoyanoff← S. da Silva

51'

A. da Silveira← S. Diana

53'

Jorge Nicolás Ayala

56'

A. Pérez

64'

Nicolas Bertocchi

67'

S. Marcel← N. Bertochi

67'

M. Ferreira← G. Vega

69'

M. Goyeni← N. Brun

73'

R. Quintana← E. Redín

74'

Yvo Calleros

74'

F. Barrandeguy← N. Guzmán

76'

A. OcampoPenalty

85'

Daniel Bahia← Alex Bruno

85'

M. Nichele← A. Ocampo

90+4'

Mathías Bogado

90+1'

Santiago Marcel Perez

90'

Gustavo Alles

Shots

Statistics

PlazaFenix

Overview

2Total Shots7

6Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

2Total Shots7

1On Target3

1Off Target4

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2