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Plaza Colonia vs Atletico Torque — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Torque
Atletico Torque
4/3/2023Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 9Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Plaza Colonia35%
×Draw28%
Atletico Torque37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plaza Colonia
1.16
Atletico Torque
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 65 away

creates per match

Plaza Colonia
1.02
Atletico Torque
1.32

allows per match

Plaza Colonia
1.06
Atletico Torque
1.29

finishing

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par
Atletico Torque+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Colonia ↓

Atletico Torque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Plaza Colonia or draw
63%
Plaza Colonia or Atletico Torque
72%
Draw or Atletico Torque
65%

Winning margin

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+
15%
Atletico Torque wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals
69%
Plaza Colonia 2+ goals
32%
Plaza Colonia 3+ goals
11%
Atletico Torque 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Torque 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Torque 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)
49%
Atletico Torque (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Colonia at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Atletico Torque away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.29 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Colonia attack 1.02 + Atletico Torque defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atletico Torque attack 1.32 + Plaza Colonia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Plaza Colonia scores more
35%
level
28%
Atletico Torque scores more
37%

Atletico Torque at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Torque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Plaza Colonia 1–2 Atletico Torque

Atletico Torque beat Plaza Colonia 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on April 3, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi in Colonia del Sacramento.