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Atletico Torque vs Plaza Colonia — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Atletico Torque
Atletico Torque
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia
3/7/2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Torque37%
×Draw27%
Plaza Colonia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Torque
1.26
Plaza Colonia
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 59 away

creates per match

Atletico Torque
1.25
Plaza Colonia
0.95

allows per match

Atletico Torque
1.49
Plaza Colonia
1.27

finishing

Atletico Torque+0.00on par
Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Torque ↓

Plaza Colonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Torque or draw
65%
Atletico Torque or Plaza Colonia
73%
Draw or Plaza Colonia
63%

Winning margin

Atletico Torque wins by 2+
16%
Plaza Colonia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atletico Torque 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Torque 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Torque 3+ goals
13%
Plaza Colonia 1+ goals
70%
Plaza Colonia 2+ goals
34%
Plaza Colonia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atletico Torque (draw refunded)
51%
Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Torque at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

Plaza Colonia away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Torque attack 1.25 + Plaza Colonia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Plaza Colonia attack 0.95 + Atletico Torque defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Torque scores more
37%
level
27%
Plaza Colonia scores more
35%

Atletico Torque at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Torque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Atletico Torque 1–1 Plaza Colonia

Atletico Torque and Plaza Colonia drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.