Plaza Colonia 1–0 Atenas: Result & Stats

Plaza Colonia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atenas

5/10/2024

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Profesor Alberto Suppici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Plaza Colonia41%

×Draw30%

Atenas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plaza ColoniaExpected goals in this matchAtenas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.92

Plaza Colonia

1.15

Atenas

0.92

Plaza Colonia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 95 away

1.13

creates per match

1.04

0.79

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Plaza Colonia

1.13

Atenas

1.04

allows per match

Plaza Colonia

0.79

Atenas

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Atenas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Colonia ↓

Atenas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Plaza Colonia or draw

71%

Plaza Colonia or Atenas

70%

Draw or Atenas

59%

Winning margin

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+

17%

Atenas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals

68%

Plaza Colonia 2+ goals

32%

Plaza Colonia 3+ goals

11%

Atenas 1+ goals

60%

Atenas 2+ goals

23%

Atenas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)

58%

Atenas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Colonia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.79 · 38 matches

Atenas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Colonia attack 1.13 + Atenas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atenas attack 1.04 + Plaza Colonia defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Plaza Colonia scores more

41%

level

30%

Atenas scores more

29%

Plaza Colonia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff