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Atenas vs Plaza Colonia — Segunda División 2026

Atenas
Atenas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia
3/24/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Atenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atenas34%
×Draw28%
Plaza Colonia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atenas
1.15
Plaza Colonia
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atenas
1.05
Plaza Colonia
1.42

allows per match

Atenas
1.06
Plaza Colonia
1.24

finishing

Atenas+0.00on par
Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atenas ↓

Plaza Colonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atenas or draw
62%
Atenas or Plaza Colonia
72%
Draw or Plaza Colonia
66%

Winning margin

Atenas wins by 2+
14%
Plaza Colonia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atenas 1+ goals
68%
Atenas 2+ goals
32%
Atenas 3+ goals
11%
Plaza Colonia 1+ goals
71%
Plaza Colonia 2+ goals
35%
Plaza Colonia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atenas (draw refunded)
47%
Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atenas at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.06 · 94 matches

Plaza Colonia away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atenas attack 1.05 + Plaza Colonia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Plaza Colonia attack 1.42 + Atenas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atenas scores more
34%
level
28%
Plaza Colonia scores more
38%

Plaza Colonia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atenas 1–1 Plaza Colonia

Atenas and Plaza Colonia drew 1-1 in Segunda División on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Atenas in San Carlos.