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Playford City Patriots vs Sturt Lions — South Australia NPL 2026

Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions
4/11/2026South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 6Ramsay Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Playford City Patriots53%
×Draw20%
Sturt Lions26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Playford City Patriots
2.24
Sturt Lions
1.54

Playford City Patriots creates 45% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 42 away

creates per match

Playford City Patriots
2.43
Sturt Lions
1.31

allows per match

Playford City Patriots
1.76
Sturt Lions
2.05

finishing

Playford City Patriots+0.00on par
Sturt Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Playford City Patriots ↓

Sturt Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Playford City Patriots or draw
74%
Playford City Patriots or Sturt Lions
80%
Draw or Sturt Lions
47%

Winning margin

Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
32%
Sturt Lions wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
89%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
65%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
38%
Sturt Lions 1+ goals
79%
Sturt Lions 2+ goals
45%
Sturt Lions 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
67%
Sturt Lions (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Playford City Patriots at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Sturt Lions away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.05 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Playford City Patriots attack 2.43 + Sturt Lions defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.24

Sturt Lions attack 1.31 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Playford City Patriots scores more
53%
level
20%
Sturt Lions scores more
26%

Playford City Patriots at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Playford City Patriots 2–1 Sturt Lions

Playford City Patriots beat Sturt Lions 2-1 in South Australia NPL on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Ramsay Park.