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Playford City Patriots vs Sturt Lions — South Australia State League 1 2026

Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
FT
4 – 1
Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions
3/23/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 4Ramsay Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Playford City Patriots42%
×Draw24%
Sturt Lions34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Playford City Patriots
1.67
Sturt Lions
1.47

Playford City Patriots creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 23 away

creates per match

Playford City Patriots
2.07
Sturt Lions
1.65

allows per match

Playford City Patriots
1.29
Sturt Lions
1.26

finishing

Playford City Patriots+0.00on par
Sturt Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Playford City Patriots ↓

Sturt Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Playford City Patriots or draw
66%
Playford City Patriots or Sturt Lions
76%
Draw or Sturt Lions
58%

Winning margin

Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
22%
Sturt Lions wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
81%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
50%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
23%
Sturt Lions 1+ goals
77%
Sturt Lions 2+ goals
43%
Sturt Lions 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
56%
Sturt Lions (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Playford City Patriots at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Sturt Lions away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Playford City Patriots attack 2.07 + Sturt Lions defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sturt Lions attack 1.65 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Playford City Patriots scores more
42%
level
24%
Sturt Lions scores more
34%

Playford City Patriots at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Playford City Patriots vs Sturt Lions

Playford City Patriots beat Sturt Lions 4-1 in South Australia State League 1 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Ramsay Park in Elizabeth West, Edinburgh North.