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Playford City Patriots vs Adelaide University — South Australia State League 1 2021

Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
FT
1 – 1
Adelaide University
Adelaide University
7/9/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 18Ramsay Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Playford City Patriots60%
×Draw21%
Adelaide University19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Playford City Patriots
1.99
Adelaide University
1.01

Playford City Patriots creates 97% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 11 away

creates per match

Playford City Patriots
2.07
Adelaide University
0.73

allows per match

Playford City Patriots
1.29
Adelaide University
1.91

finishing

Playford City Patriots+0.00on par
Adelaide University+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Playford City Patriots ↓

Adelaide University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Playford City Patriots or draw
81%
Playford City Patriots or Adelaide University
79%
Draw or Adelaide University
40%

Winning margin

Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
36%
Adelaide University wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
86%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
59%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
32%
Adelaide University 1+ goals
64%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
27%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
76%
Adelaide University (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Playford City Patriots at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Adelaide University away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Playford City Patriots attack 2.07 + Adelaide University defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.99

Adelaide University attack 0.73 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Playford City Patriots scores more
60%
level
21%
Adelaide University scores more
19%

Playford City Patriots at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Playford City Patriots vs Adelaide University

Playford City Patriots and Adelaide University drew 1-1 in South Australia State League 1 on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Ramsay Park in Elizabeth West, Edinburgh North.