Adelaide University 2–0 Playford City Patriots

Adelaide University

FT

2 – 0

Playford City Patriots

5/11/2022

South Australia State League 1 · Round 7VALO Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Adelaide University22%

×Draw20%

Playford City Patriots58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide UniversityExpected goals in this matchPlayford City Patriots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.25

Adelaide University

1.33

Playford City Patriots

2.25

Playford City Patriots creates 69% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 46 away

1.18

creates per match

1.87

2.64

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Adelaide University

1.18

Playford City Patriots

1.87

allows per match

Adelaide University

2.64

Playford City Patriots

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide University+0.00on par

Playford City Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide University ↓

Playford City Patriots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Adelaide University or draw

42%

Adelaide University or Playford City Patriots

80%

Draw or Playford City Patriots

78%

Winning margin

Adelaide University wins by 2+

9%

Playford City Patriots wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Adelaide University 1+ goals

74%

Adelaide University 2+ goals

38%

Adelaide University 3+ goals

15%

Playford City Patriots 1+ goals

89%

Playford City Patriots 2+ goals

65%

Playford City Patriots 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Adelaide University (draw refunded)

28%

Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide University at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Playford City Patriots away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide University attack 1.18 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Playford City Patriots attack 1.87 + Adelaide University defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Adelaide University scores more

22%

level

20%

Playford City Patriots scores more

58%

Playford City Patriots at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff