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Playford City Patriots vs Adelaide Hills Hawks — South Australia State League 1 2021

Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
FT
3 – 0
Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
8/13/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 22Ramsay Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Playford City Patriots60%
×Draw20%
Adelaide Hills Hawks20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Playford City Patriots
2.15
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.15

Playford City Patriots creates 87% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 22 away

creates per match

Playford City Patriots
2.07
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.00

allows per match

Playford City Patriots
1.29
Adelaide Hills Hawks
2.23

finishing

Playford City Patriots+0.00on par
Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Playford City Patriots ↓

Adelaide Hills Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Playford City Patriots or draw
80%
Playford City Patriots or Adelaide Hills Hawks
80%
Draw or Adelaide Hills Hawks
40%

Winning margin

Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
37%
Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
88%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
63%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
36%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
68%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
32%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
75%
Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Playford City Patriots at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Playford City Patriots attack 2.07 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.15

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.00 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Playford City Patriots scores more
60%
level
20%
Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
20%

Playford City Patriots at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Playford City Patriots 3–0 Adelaide Hills Hawks

Playford City Patriots beat Adelaide Hills Hawks 3-0 in South Australia State League 1 on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Ramsay Park in Elizabeth West, Edinburgh North.