Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adelaide Hills Hawks vs Playford City Patriots — South Australia State League 1 2021

Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
FT
3 – 1
Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
5/21/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 11Hawks Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks27%
×Draw23%
Playford City Patriots50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.33
Playford City Patriots
1.87

Playford City Patriots creates 41% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 46 away

creates per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.18
Playford City Patriots
1.87

allows per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.86
Playford City Patriots
1.48

finishing

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par
Playford City Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Hills Hawks ↓

Playford City Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Adelaide Hills Hawks or draw
50%
Adelaide Hills Hawks or Playford City Patriots
77%
Draw or Playford City Patriots
73%

Winning margin

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
12%
Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
74%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
38%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
15%
Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
85%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
56%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
35%
Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Hills Hawks at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Playford City Patriots away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.18 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Playford City Patriots attack 1.87 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
27%
level
23%
Playford City Patriots scores more
50%

Playford City Patriots at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide Hills Hawks 3–1 Playford City Patriots

Adelaide Hills Hawks beat Playford City Patriots 3-1 in South Australia State League 1 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Hawks Nest in Woodside.