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Playford City Patriots vs Adelaide Cobras — South Australia State League 1 2026

Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
FT
1 – 2
Adelaide Cobras
Adelaide Cobras
8/14/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 17Ramsay Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Playford City Patriots53%
×Draw22%
Adelaide Cobras25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Playford City Patriots
1.99
Adelaide Cobras
1.29

Playford City Patriots creates 54% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 53 away

creates per match

Playford City Patriots
2.07
Adelaide Cobras
1.30

allows per match

Playford City Patriots
1.29
Adelaide Cobras
1.91

finishing

Playford City Patriots+0.00on par
Adelaide Cobras+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Playford City Patriots ↓

Adelaide Cobras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Playford City Patriots or draw
75%
Playford City Patriots or Adelaide Cobras
78%
Draw or Adelaide Cobras
47%

Winning margin

Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
31%
Adelaide Cobras wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
86%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
59%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
32%
Adelaide Cobras 1+ goals
72%
Adelaide Cobras 2+ goals
37%
Adelaide Cobras 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
68%
Adelaide Cobras (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Playford City Patriots at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Adelaide Cobras away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Playford City Patriots attack 2.07 + Adelaide Cobras defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.99

Adelaide Cobras attack 1.30 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Playford City Patriots scores more
53%
level
22%
Adelaide Cobras scores more
25%

Playford City Patriots at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Playford City Patriots 1–2 Adelaide Cobras

Adelaide Cobras beat Playford City Patriots 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ramsay Park in Elizabeth West, Edinburgh North.