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Adelaide Cobras vs Playford City Patriots — South Australia State League 1 2026

Adelaide Cobras
Adelaide Cobras
FT
1 – 2
Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
2/24/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 1Pro Paint & Panel Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Adelaide Cobras32%
×Draw23%
Playford City Patriots44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Cobras
1.44
Playford City Patriots
1.72

Playford City Patriots creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 46 away

creates per match

Adelaide Cobras
1.41
Playford City Patriots
1.87

allows per match

Adelaide Cobras
1.57
Playford City Patriots
1.48

finishing

Adelaide Cobras+0.00on par
Playford City Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Cobras ↓

Playford City Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Adelaide Cobras or draw
56%
Adelaide Cobras or Playford City Patriots
77%
Draw or Playford City Patriots
68%

Winning margin

Adelaide Cobras wins by 2+
15%
Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Adelaide Cobras 1+ goals
76%
Adelaide Cobras 2+ goals
42%
Adelaide Cobras 3+ goals
18%
Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
82%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
51%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Cobras (draw refunded)
42%
Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Cobras at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 54 matches

Playford City Patriots away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Cobras attack 1.41 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Playford City Patriots attack 1.87 + Adelaide Cobras defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Adelaide Cobras scores more
32%
level
23%
Playford City Patriots scores more
44%

Playford City Patriots at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Adelaide Cobras 1–2 Playford City Patriots

Playford City Patriots beat Adelaide Cobras 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Pro Paint & Panel Oval in Plympton.