Playford City Patriots 0–0 Adelaide Blue Eagles

Playford City Patriots

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Adelaide Blue Eagles

6/8/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 14Ramsay Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Playford City Patriots43%

×Draw23%

Adelaide Blue Eagles34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Playford City PatriotsExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Blue Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.59

Playford City Patriots

1.82

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.59

Playford City Patriots creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 53 away

2.07

creates per match

1.89

1.29

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Playford City Patriots

2.07

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.89

allows per match

Playford City Patriots

1.29

Adelaide Blue Eagles

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Playford City Patriots+0.00on par

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Playford City Patriots ↓

Adelaide Blue Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Playford City Patriots or draw

66%

Playford City Patriots or Adelaide Blue Eagles

77%

Draw or Adelaide Blue Eagles

57%

Winning margin

Playford City Patriots wins by 2+

23%

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Playford City Patriots 1+ goals

84%

Playford City Patriots 2+ goals

54%

Playford City Patriots 3+ goals

27%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals

80%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals

47%

Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)

56%

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Playford City Patriots at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Playford City Patriots attack 2.07 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.82

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 1.89 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Playford City Patriots scores more

43%

level

23%

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more

34%

Playford City Patriots at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff