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Plauen vs Motor Marienberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Plauen
Plauen
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Motor Marienberg
Motor Marienberg
2/10/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 16Vogtlandstadion Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Plauen80%
×Draw12%
Motor Marienberg7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
2.96
Motor Marienberg
0.80

Plauen creates 270% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Plauen
2.32
Motor Marienberg
0.73

allows per match

Plauen
0.88
Motor Marienberg
3.60

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

Motor Marienberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
93%
Plauen or Motor Marienberg
88%
Draw or Motor Marienberg
20%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
61%
Motor Marienberg wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
95%
Plauen 2+ goals
79%
Plauen 3+ goals
55%
Motor Marienberg 1+ goals
55%
Motor Marienberg 2+ goals
19%
Motor Marienberg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
92%
Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.96

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Plauen scores more
80%
level
12%
Motor Marienberg scores more
7%

Plauen at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plauen vs Motor Marienberg

Plauen beat Motor Marienberg 6-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Vogtlandstadion Kunstrasenplatz in Plauen.