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Motor Marienberg vs Plauen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Motor Marienberg
Motor Marienberg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plauen
Plauen
7/29/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 1Lautengrundstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Motor Marienberg22%
×Draw20%
Plauen58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motor Marienberg
1.30
Plauen
2.22

Plauen creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 68 away

creates per match

Motor Marienberg
1.47
Plauen
1.84

allows per match

Motor Marienberg
2.60
Plauen
1.13

finishing

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par
Plauen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Marienberg ↓

Plauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Motor Marienberg or draw
42%
Motor Marienberg or Plauen
80%
Draw or Plauen
78%

Winning margin

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+
9%
Plauen wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals
73%
Motor Marienberg 2+ goals
37%
Motor Marienberg 3+ goals
14%
Plauen 1+ goals
89%
Plauen 2+ goals
65%
Plauen 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)
27%
Plauen (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Marienberg at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Plauen away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Marienberg attack 1.47 + Plauen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Plauen attack 1.84 + Motor Marienberg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Motor Marienberg scores more
22%
level
20%
Plauen scores more
58%

Plauen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Motor Marienberg 1–0 Plauen

Motor Marienberg beat Plauen 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Lautengrundstadion in Marienberg.