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Plauen vs International Leipzig — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Plauen
Plauen
FT
2 – 0
International Leipzig
International Leipzig
11/5/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 13Sternquell-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Plauen66%
×Draw18%
International Leipzig16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
2.43
International Leipzig
1.12

Plauen creates 117% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 22 away

creates per match

Plauen
2.32
International Leipzig
1.36

allows per match

Plauen
0.88
International Leipzig
2.55

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
International Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

International Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
84%
Plauen or International Leipzig
82%
Draw or International Leipzig
34%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
44%
International Leipzig wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
91%
Plauen 2+ goals
69%
Plauen 3+ goals
43%
International Leipzig 1+ goals
67%
International Leipzig 2+ goals
31%
International Leipzig 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
80%
International Leipzig (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

International Leipzig away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + International Leipzig defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.43

International Leipzig attack 1.36 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Plauen scores more
66%
level
18%
International Leipzig scores more
16%

Plauen at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plauen vs International Leipzig

Plauen beat International Leipzig 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 5, 2021.

The match was played at Sternquell-Arena in Plauen.