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International Leipzig vs Plauen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

International Leipzig
International Leipzig
FT
1 – 2
Plauen
Plauen
10/31/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 10Hafenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

International Leipzig25%
×Draw22%
Plauen52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

International Leipzig
1.28
Plauen
1.92

Plauen creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 68 away

creates per match

International Leipzig
1.44
Plauen
1.84

allows per match

International Leipzig
2.00
Plauen
1.13

finishing

International Leipzig+0.00on par
Plauen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

International Leipzig ↓

Plauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

International Leipzig or draw
48%
International Leipzig or Plauen
78%
Draw or Plauen
75%

Winning margin

International Leipzig wins by 2+
11%
Plauen wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

International Leipzig 1+ goals
72%
International Leipzig 2+ goals
37%
International Leipzig 3+ goals
14%
Plauen 1+ goals
85%
Plauen 2+ goals
57%
Plauen 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

International Leipzig (draw refunded)
33%
Plauen (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

International Leipzig at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Plauen away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

International Leipzig attack 1.44 + Plauen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Plauen attack 1.84 + International Leipzig defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

International Leipzig scores more
25%
level
22%
Plauen scores more
52%

Plauen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: International Leipzig 1–2 Plauen

Plauen beat International Leipzig 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Hafenstadion in Torgau.