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Plauen vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Plauen
Plauen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
A. Brahaj 36'
C. Sezer 54'
7/5/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Plauen16%
×Draw17%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
1.25
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
2.65

FC Carl Zeiss Jena creates 112% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Plauen
1.00
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
2.29

allows per match

Plauen
3.00
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1.50

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
FC Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

FC Carl Zeiss Jena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
33%
Plauen or FC Carl Zeiss Jena
83%
Draw or FC Carl Zeiss Jena
84%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
6%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
71%
Plauen 2+ goals
36%
Plauen 3+ goals
13%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals
93%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals
74%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
20%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

FC Carl Zeiss Jena away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 1.00 + FC Carl Zeiss Jena defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Carl Zeiss Jena attack 2.29 + Plauen defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Plauen scores more
16%
level
17%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena scores more
67%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FC Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
A. Brahaj
54'
C. Sezer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plauen 1 – 1 FC Carl Zeiss Jena

Plauen and FC Carl Zeiss Jena drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 5, 2024.

Goals: A. Brahaj (36'), C. Sezer (54').

The match was played at TBC in TBC.