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FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs Plauen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Carl Zeiss Jena
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Plauen
Plauen
1/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Carl Zeiss Jena67%
×Draw16%
Plauen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Carl Zeiss Jena
2.96
Plauen
1.44

FC Carl Zeiss Jena creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena
2.73
Plauen
1.40

allows per match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1.47
Plauen
3.20

finishing

FC Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par
Plauen+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Carl Zeiss Jena ↓

Plauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

FC Carl Zeiss Jena or draw
84%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena or Plauen
84%
Draw or Plauen
33%

Winning margin

FC Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+
48%
Plauen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals
95%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals
79%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals
55%
Plauen 1+ goals
76%
Plauen 2+ goals
42%
Plauen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)
80%
Plauen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Plauen away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Carl Zeiss Jena attack 2.73 + Plauen defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.96

Plauen attack 1.40 + FC Carl Zeiss Jena defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Carl Zeiss Jena scores more
67%
level
16%
Plauen scores more
16%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FC Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

FC
Plauen
Henning Burger
Manager: Henning Burger
K. Oswald
Manager: K. Oswald

Friendlies Clubs: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3–2 Plauen

FC Carl Zeiss Jena beat Plauen 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 21, 2026.