Platinum 0–3 Etoile DU Sahel: Result & Stats

Platinum

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Etoile DU Sahel

Hazem Haj-Hassen 90'

Karim Aribi 46', 23'

12/7/2019

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 2Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Platinum40%

×Draw30%

Etoile DU Sahel30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatinumExpected goals in this matchEtoile DU Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.93

Platinum

1.14

Etoile DU Sahel

0.93

Platinum creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.14

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Platinum

1.14

Etoile DU Sahel

0.86

allows per match

Platinum

1.00

Etoile DU Sahel

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platinum+0.00on par

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platinum ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Platinum or draw

70%

Platinum or Etoile DU Sahel

70%

Draw or Etoile DU Sahel

60%

Winning margin

Platinum wins by 2+

17%

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Platinum 1+ goals

68%

Platinum 2+ goals

32%

Platinum 3+ goals

11%

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals

61%

Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals

24%

Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Platinum (draw refunded)

58%

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platinum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platinum attack 1.14 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Etoile DU Sahel attack 0.86 + Platinum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Platinum scores more

40%

level

30%

Etoile DU Sahel scores more

30%

Platinum at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Karim Aribi

Etoile DU Sahel · F

8.2

Match Events

23'

Karim Aribi↳ Maher Hannachi

41'

Hazem Haj-Hassen← Mortadha Ben Ouanes

46'

Karim Aribi↳ Wajdi Kechrida

58'

Perfect Chikwende← Never Tigere

67'

Salim Boukhenchouche

76'

Ammar Jemal

77'

Malek Baayou← Salim Boukhenchouche

81'

Lameck Nhamo← William Stima

83'

Darwin Gonzalez← Karim Aribi

90'

Hazem Haj-Hassen↳ Darwin Gonzalez

90'

Mohamed Methnani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatinumEtoile

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots7

8Corners6

10Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots7

2On Target4

10Off Target1

3Blocked2

2Inside Box6

13Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

456Total Passes424

381Accurate Passes343

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1