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Etoile DU Sahel vs Platinum — CAF Champions League 2019

Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Sahel
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Platinum
Platinum
Malek Baayou 72'
Karim Aribi 48'
2/1/2020CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 6Stade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Etoile DU Sahel57%
×Draw25%
Platinum18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile DU Sahel
1.63
Platinum
0.79

Etoile DU Sahel creates 106% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Etoile DU Sahel
1.64
Platinum
0.88

allows per match

Etoile DU Sahel
0.71
Platinum
1.63

finishing

Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par
Platinum+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile DU Sahel ↓

Platinum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Etoile DU Sahel or draw
82%
Etoile DU Sahel or Platinum
75%
Draw or Platinum
43%

Winning margin

Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
31%
Platinum wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
80%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
48%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
22%
Platinum 1+ goals
55%
Platinum 2+ goals
19%
Platinum 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
76%
Platinum (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile DU Sahel at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Platinum away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.64 + Platinum defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Platinum attack 0.88 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Etoile DU Sahel scores more
57%
level
25%
Platinum scores more
18%

Etoile DU Sahel at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Iheb MsakniEtoile DU SahelEtoile DU Sahel · M
8.7

Match Events

37'
Ammar Jemal
48'
Karim Aribi↳ Iheb Msakni
57'
Tawana Chikore
63'
Last Jesi← Gift Mbweti
69'
Stanley Ngala
70'
Perfect Chikwende← Guyve Mawete Nsiala
72'
Malek Baayou↳ Iheb Msakni
72'
Souleymane Coulibaly← Hamza Lahmar
80'
Raphael Muduviwa
80'
Alaya Brigui← Maher Hannachi
83'
Malek Baayou← Malek Baayou
87'
William Stima← Raphael Muduviwa

Possession

67%Etoile

Shots

17Etoile

Pass accuracy

57%Etoile

Statistics

EtoilePlatinum
Overview
67%Possession33%
17Total Shots3
4Corners0
16Fouls22
Shots
17Total Shots3
6On Target0
9Off Target0
2Blocked3
11Inside Box1
6Outside Box2
Passing
67%Possession33%
629Total Passes306
552Accurate Passes205
88%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls22
1Yellow Cards3
7Offsides1

CAF Champions League: Etoile DU Sahel 2–0 Platinum

Etoile DU Sahel beat Platinum 2-0 in CAF Champions League on February 1, 2020.

Goals: Karim Aribi (48'), Malek Baayou (72').

Etoile DU Sahel controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.