Platges Calvià 0–0 Murense: Result & Stats

Platges Calvià

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Murense

9/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 1Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Platges Calvià61%

×Draw24%

Murense16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platges CalviàExpected goals in this matchMurense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.74

Platges Calvià

1.71

Murense

0.74

Platges Calvià creates 131% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 20 away

1.52

creates per match

0.65

0.83

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Platges Calvià

1.52

Murense

0.65

allows per match

Platges Calvià

0.83

Murense

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Murense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Murense →

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw

84%

Platges Calvià or Murense

76%

Draw or Murense

39%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+

34%

Murense wins by 2+

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals

82%

Platges Calvià 2+ goals

51%

Platges Calvià 3+ goals

24%

Murense 1+ goals

52%

Murense 2+ goals

17%

Murense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)

79%

Murense (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Murense away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Murense attack 0.65 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Platges Calvià scores more

61%

level

24%

Murense scores more

16%

Platges Calvià at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff