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Murense vs Platges Calvià — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Murense
Murense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
2/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 22Camp de Fútbol de Muro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Murense23%
×Draw26%
Platges Calvià51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murense
0.92
Platges Calvià
1.51

Platges Calvià creates 64% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 112 away

creates per match

Murense
0.90
Platges Calvià
1.13

allows per match

Murense
1.90
Platges Calvià
0.94

finishing

Murense+0.00on par
Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murense ↓

Platges Calvià →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Murense or draw
49%
Murense or Platges Calvià
74%
Draw or Platges Calvià
77%

Winning margin

Murense wins by 2+
8%
Platges Calvià wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Murense 1+ goals
60%
Murense 2+ goals
23%
Murense 3+ goals
7%
Platges Calvià 1+ goals
78%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
44%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Murense (draw refunded)
31%
Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murense at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murense attack 0.90 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Murense scores more
23%
level
26%
Platges Calvià scores more
51%

Platges Calvià at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murense vs Platges Calvià

Platges Calvià beat Murense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de Fútbol de Muro in Muro.