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Platges Calvià vs Felanitx — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Felanitx
Felanitx
4/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 31Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Platges Calvià53%
×Draw25%
Felanitx22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platges Calvià
1.62
Felanitx
0.95

Platges Calvià creates 71% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 99 away

creates per match

Platges Calvià
1.52
Felanitx
1.07

allows per match

Platges Calvià
0.83
Felanitx
1.72

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par
Felanitx+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Felanitx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw
78%
Platges Calvià or Felanitx
75%
Draw or Felanitx
47%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+
28%
Felanitx wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals
80%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
48%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
22%
Felanitx 1+ goals
61%
Felanitx 2+ goals
25%
Felanitx 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
71%
Felanitx (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Felanitx away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Felanitx defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.62

Felanitx attack 1.07 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Platges Calvià scores more
53%
level
25%
Felanitx scores more
22%

Platges Calvià at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platges Calvià vs Felanitx

Platges Calvià beat Felanitx 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf in Magaluf.