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Felanitx vs Platges Calvià — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Felanitx
Felanitx
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 31Estadio Es Torrentó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Felanitx34%
×Draw28%
Platges Calvià38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felanitx
1.11
Platges Calvià
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 112 away

creates per match

Felanitx
1.29
Platges Calvià
1.13

allows per match

Felanitx
1.23
Platges Calvià
0.94

finishing

Felanitx+0.00on par
Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felanitx ↓

Platges Calvià →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Felanitx or draw
62%
Felanitx or Platges Calvià
72%
Draw or Platges Calvià
66%

Winning margin

Felanitx wins by 2+
14%
Platges Calvià wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Felanitx 1+ goals
67%
Felanitx 2+ goals
30%
Felanitx 3+ goals
10%
Platges Calvià 1+ goals
69%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
33%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Felanitx (draw refunded)
48%
Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felanitx at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 100 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felanitx attack 1.29 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Felanitx defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Felanitx scores more
34%
level
28%
Platges Calvià scores more
38%

Platges Calvià at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Felanitx vs Platges Calvià

Felanitx and Platges Calvià drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Es Torrentó in Mallorca.