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Platges Calvià vs Constància — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Constància
Constància
9/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 4Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Platges Calvià43%
×Draw28%
Constància29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platges Calvià
1.28
Constància
0.99

Platges Calvià creates 29% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 115 away

creates per match

Platges Calvià
1.52
Constància
1.15

allows per match

Platges Calvià
0.83
Constància
1.04

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par
Constància+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Constància →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw
71%
Platges Calvià or Constància
72%
Draw or Constància
57%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+
19%
Constància wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals
72%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
37%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
14%
Constància 1+ goals
63%
Constància 2+ goals
26%
Constància 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
60%
Constància (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Constància away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Constància defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.28

Constància attack 1.15 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Platges Calvià scores more
43%
level
28%
Constància scores more
29%

Platges Calvià at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Platges Calvià 3–2 Constància

Platges Calvià beat Constància 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf in Magaluf.