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Constància vs Platges Calvià — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
2/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Constància45%
×Draw28%
Platges Calvià27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
1.30
Platges Calvià
0.95

Constància creates 37% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
Platges Calvià
1.13

allows per match

Constància
0.78
Platges Calvià
0.94

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Platges Calvià →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Constància or draw
73%
Constància or Platges Calvià
72%
Draw or Platges Calvià
55%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
20%
Platges Calvià wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
73%
Constància 2+ goals
37%
Constància 3+ goals
14%
Platges Calvià 1+ goals
61%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
25%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
62%
Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.30

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Constància scores more
45%
level
28%
Platges Calvià scores more
27%

Constància at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Constància 0–2 Platges Calvià

Platges Calvià beat Constància 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Camp de Inca in Inca.