Platense 1–1 Newells Old Boys: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Newells Old Boys

J. Esquivel 82'

M. Ledesma 41' (OG)

7/9/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Platense39%

×Draw31%

Newells Old Boys30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchNewells Old Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.90

Platense

1.06

Newells Old Boys

0.90

Platense creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.01

creates per match

1.12

0.68

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Newells Old Boys

1.12

allows per match

Platense

0.68

Newells Old Boys

1.10

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less

Newells Old Boys-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Newells Old Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Platense or draw

70%

Platense or Newells Old Boys

69%

Draw or Newells Old Boys

61%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

15%

Newells Old Boys wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

65%

Platense 2+ goals

29%

Platense 3+ goals

9%

Newells Old Boys 1+ goals

59%

Newells Old Boys 2+ goals

23%

Newells Old Boys 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

56%

Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Newells Old Boys away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Newells Old Boys defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Newells Old Boys attack 1.12 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Platense scores more

39%

level

31%

Newells Old Boys scores more

30%

Platense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Lema

Newells Old Boys · D

7.3

Match Events

39'

Carlos Villalba

41'

M. LedesmaOwn goal

49'

Gustavo Velázquez

53'

V. Taborda← A. Sabella

63'

D. Reasco← F. González

64'

J. Garro← J. García

77'

N. Delgadillo← I. Schor

77'

J. Esquivel← H. Tijanovich

78'

S. Guerrero← C. Villalba

78'

F. Mansilla← T. Jacob

82'

J. Esquivel

84'

F. Gino← I. Gómez

84'

M. Portillo← R. Sordo

90+4'

Willer Ditta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseNewells

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots9

3Corners5

12Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target2

5Off Target7

3Blocked0

5Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

407Total Passes437

283Accurate Passes315

70%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2