Newells Old Boys 3–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Newells Old Boys

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Platense

D. Reasco 85'

N. Castro 54' (pen)

J. Garro 28'

I. Schor 44'

4/3/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 8Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Newells Old Boys41%

×Draw31%

Platense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newells Old BoysExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.85

Newells Old Boys

1.11

Platense

0.85

Newells Old Boys creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

1.02

creates per match

0.73

0.98

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Newells Old Boys

1.02

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Newells Old Boys

0.98

Platense

1.21

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Newells Old Boys-0.07on par

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newells Old Boys ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Newells Old Boys or draw

72%

Newells Old Boys or Platense

69%

Draw or Platense

59%

Winning margin

Newells Old Boys wins by 2+

17%

Platense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Newells Old Boys 1+ goals

67%

Newells Old Boys 2+ goals

30%

Newells Old Boys 3+ goals

10%

Platense 1+ goals

57%

Platense 2+ goals

21%

Platense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Newells Old Boys (draw refunded)

60%

Platense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newells Old Boys at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.98 · 20 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newells Old Boys attack 1.02 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Platense attack 0.73 + Newells Old Boys defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Newells Old Boys scores more

41%

level

31%

Platense scores more

28%

Newells Old Boys at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Newells Old Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Castro

Newells Old Boys · M

8.2

Match Events

28'

38'

44'

45+6'

48'

52'

Juan GarroPenalty awarded

53'

Juan Infante

54'

N. CastroPenalty

62'

Diego Calcaterra

62'

R. Sordo← F. González

67'

M. Portillo← D. Calcaterra

73'

B. Mansilla← G. Bergessio

74'

J. Giani← J. Garro

74'

D. Reasco← N. Castro

74'

N. Fúnez← J. García

74'

R. Contreras← I. Gómez

82'

Justo Giani

82'

T. Sandoval← H. Tijanovich

82'

F. Russo← I. Schor

84'

N. Delgadillo← M. Bogado

85'

D. Reasco↳ N. Fúnez

88'

Gustavo Velázquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewellsPlatense

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots11

4Corners3

20Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots11

4On Target2

4Off Target7

3Blocked2

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

325Total Passes298

244Accurate Passes203

75%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls8

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Newells Old Boys 3–1 Platense

Newells Old Boys beat Platense 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 3, 2022.

Goals: J. Garro (28'), I. Schor (44'), N. Castro (54' pen), D. Reasco (85').

Newells Old Boys controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.

Newells Old Boys vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Newells Old Boys 3–1 Platense