Platense vs Independ. Rivadavia

Platense

CANC

19:00

Independ. Rivadavia

5/9/2020

Primera Nacional · Group A - 29Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Platense42%

×Draw29%

Independ. Rivadavia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchIndepend. Rivadavia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.99

Platense

1.25

Independ. Rivadavia

0.99

Platense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 104 away

1.17

creates per match

1.03

0.96

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Platense

1.17

Independ. Rivadavia

1.03

allows per match

Platense

0.96

Independ. Rivadavia

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense+0.00on par

Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Platense or draw

71%

Platense or Independ. Rivadavia

71%

Draw or Independ. Rivadavia

58%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

19%

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

71%

Platense 2+ goals

36%

Platense 3+ goals

13%

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

63%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

26%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

59%

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.17 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.03 + Platense defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Platense scores more

42%

level

29%

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

29%

Platense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff