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Independ. Rivadavia vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Platense
Platense
R. Martínez 87'
M. Pellegrino 9'
8/23/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia42%
×Draw30%
Platense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independ. Rivadavia
1.19
Platense
0.91

Independ. Rivadavia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 13 away

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.05
Platense
0.80

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.01
Platense
1.33

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia-0.32scores less
Platense+0.28scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw
72%
Independ. Rivadavia or Platense
70%
Draw or Platense
58%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
18%
Platense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
70%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
33%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
12%
Platense 1+ goals
60%
Platense 2+ goals
23%
Platense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
60%
Platense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Platense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.05 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Platense attack 0.80 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more
42%
level
30%
Platense scores more
28%

Independ. Rivadavia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. PellegrinoPlatensePlatense · F
7.9

Match Events

9'
M. Pellegrino↳ B. Barros Schelotto
36'
G. Ríos← I. Villalba
40'
Tobías Ostchega
42'
Ivan Gómez
60'
Fernando Romero
61'
L. Sequeira← Ezequiel Ham
61'
G. Álvez← L. Ríos
67'
C. Villalba← F. Juárez
67'
F. Baldassarra← F. Minerva
77'
J. Sanguina← S. Villa
77'
M. Asenjo← Fernando Romero
80'
J. Pignani← I. Gómez
87'
A. Lotti← G. Mainero
87'
R. Martínez← M. Pellegrino
87'
R. Martínez↳ A. Lotti

Possession

72%Independ.

Shots

9Independ.

Pass accuracy

60%Independ.

Statistics

Independ.Platense
Overview
72%Possession28%
9Total Shots13
0.52Expected Goals (xG)0.92
1Corners5
7Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots13
0On Target3
8Off Target9
1Blocked1
5Inside Box9
4Outside Box4
Passing
72%Possession28%
510Total Passes193
398Accurate Passes102
78%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
0.00Goals Prevented0.00
Discipline
7Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Platense

Platense beat Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 23, 2024.

Goals: M. Pellegrino (9'), R. Martínez (87').

Independ. Rivadavia controlled possession (72%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza.