Platense 1–2 Guillermo Brown: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Guillermo Brown

E. Borrego 13'

E. Moreno 90+5', 11'

9/8/2019

Primera Nacional · Group A - 4Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Platense46%

×Draw29%

Guillermo Brown25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchGuillermo Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.83

Platense

1.23

Guillermo Brown

0.83

Platense creates 48% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 101 away

1.17

creates per match

0.70

0.96

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Platense

1.17

Guillermo Brown

0.70

allows per match

Platense

0.96

Guillermo Brown

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense+0.00on par

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Guillermo Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Platense or draw

75%

Platense or Guillermo Brown

71%

Draw or Guillermo Brown

54%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

20%

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

71%

Platense 2+ goals

35%

Platense 3+ goals

13%

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

56%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

20%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

65%

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

Guillermo Brown away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.17 + Guillermo Brown defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guillermo Brown attack 0.70 + Platense defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Platense scores more

46%

level

29%

Guillermo Brown scores more

25%

Platense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

13'

14'

46'

56'

J. Rossi← F. Curuchet

71'

M. Tissera← E. Borrego

75'

A. Méndez← F. Soloa

76'

79'

90'

90+1'

F. Pumpido← J. Martínez

90+5'

E. Moreno

Platense

Guillermo

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: F. Ruiz

56'▲J. Rossi←▼F. Curuchet

71'▲M. Tissera←▼E. Borrego

Platense substitutes

RossiTisseraRecaldeBochiDesábatoIribarrenVega

Manager: M. Broggi

46'▲M. Ramírez←▼M. Bazán

75'▲A. Méndez←▼F. Soloa

90+1'▲F. Pumpido←▼J. Martínez

Guillermo Brown substitutes

RamírezMéndezPumpidoVeraMugaHernerAgüero

Match Recap: Platense vs Guillermo Brown

Guillermo Brown beat Platense 2-1 in Primera Nacional on September 8, 2019.

Goals: E. Moreno (11', 90+5'), E. Borrego (13').

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Platense vs Guillermo Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Platense vs Guillermo Brown