Guillermo Brown 1–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Guillermo Brown

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Platense

R. Depetris 45' (pen)

R. Bochi 45+2'

3/1/2020

Primera Nacional · Group A - 19Estadio Raúl Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Guillermo Brown33%

×Draw30%

Platense37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guillermo BrownExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.10

Guillermo Brown

1.01

Platense

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 24 away

1.02

creates per match

1.29

0.91

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Guillermo Brown

1.02

Platense

1.29

allows per match

Guillermo Brown

0.91

Platense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw

63%

Guillermo Brown or Platense

70%

Draw or Platense

67%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

12%

Platense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

64%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

27%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

8%

Platense 1+ goals

67%

Platense 2+ goals

30%

Platense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

47%

Platense (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.91 · 100 matches

Platense away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.02 + Platense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Platense attack 1.29 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more

33%

level

30%

Platense scores more

37%

Platense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

R. DepetrisPenalty

45+2'

50'

58'

67'

72'

J. Susvielles← J. Rossi

74'

A. Méndez← J. Bonetto

78'

J. Martínez← R. Depetris

81'

H. Lamberti

82'

G. Pugliese← J. Sinisterra

85'

A. Bolivar

86'

L. Lugarzo

86'

L. Lugarzo

88'

L. Sánchez← G. Urquijo

90'

F. Curuchet

90+4'

G. Ferracuti

Guillermo

Platense

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Broggi

74'▲A. Méndez←▼J. Bonetto

78'▲J. Martínez←▼R. Depetris

88'▲L. Sánchez←▼G. Urquijo

Guillermo Brown substitutes

MéndezMartínezSánchezUmeresRuizAgüeroCortez

Manager: F. Ruiz

67'▲L. Baima←▼G. Bazán

72'▲J. Susvielles←▼J. Rossi

82'▲G. Pugliese←▼J. Sinisterra

Platense substitutes

BaimaSusviellesPuglieseVegaDesábatoIribarrenLluy

Match Recap: Guillermo Brown vs Platense

Guillermo Brown and Platense drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on March 1, 2020.

Goals: R. Depetris (45' pen), R. Bochi (45+2').

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Conti in Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut.

Guillermo Brown vs Platense — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Guillermo Brown vs Platense