Platense 1–0 Gimnasia L.P.: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gimnasia L.P.

M. Pellegrino 1'

12/15/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 27Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Platense44%

×Draw31%

Gimnasia L.P.25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchGimnasia L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.79

Platense

1.14

Gimnasia L.P.

0.79

Platense creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

1.05

creates per match

0.90

0.67

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Platense

1.05

Gimnasia L.P.

0.90

allows per match

Platense

0.67

Gimnasia L.P.

1.22

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Platense-0.34scores less

Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Platense or draw

75%

Platense or Gimnasia L.P.

69%

Draw or Gimnasia L.P.

56%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

19%

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

68%

Platense 2+ goals

32%

Platense 3+ goals

11%

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

55%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

19%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

63%

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.67 · 17 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.05 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Platense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Platense scores more

44%

level

31%

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

25%

Platense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

S. Marcich

Platense · D

8.0

Match Events

1'

16'

35'

38'

46'

46'

S. Primante← M. Fernández

46'

F. Corbalán← R. Gallo

61'

C. Villalba← F. Juárez

63'

Leonardo Morales

68'

R. Martínez← M. Pellegrino

68'

J. Saborido← B. Barros Schelotto

71'

Leonel Picco

75'

F. Troyansky← P. De Blasis

76'

A. Max← L. Mamut

77'

Augusto Max

85'

F. Zapiola Yamartino← G. Mainero

90+3'

‪Ignacio Schor

90+3'

Yonatan Cabral

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseGimnasia

Overview

34%Possession66%

14Total Shots7

0.94Expected Goals (xG)0.20

6Corners7

10Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots7

4On Target0

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

244Total Passes497

153Accurate Passes392

63%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

-0.48Goals Prevented-0.48

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Platense vs Gimnasia L.P.

Platense beat Gimnasia L.P. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on December 15, 2024.

Goals: M. Pellegrino (1').

Gimnasia L.P. controlled possession (66%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Platense vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Platense vs Gimnasia L.P.