Gimnasia L.P. 1–0 Platense: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

N. Garayalde 90'

5/4/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 16Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.41%

×Draw29%

Platense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.96

Gimnasia L.P.

1.20

Platense

0.96

Gimnasia L.P. creates 25% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

1.07

creates per match

0.80

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.07

Platense

0.80

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.11

Platense

1.33

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less

Platense+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

71%

Gimnasia L.P. or Platense

71%

Draw or Platense

59%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

18%

Platense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

70%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

34%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

12%

Platense 1+ goals

62%

Platense 2+ goals

25%

Platense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

59%

Platense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Platense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Platense attack 0.80 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

41%

level

29%

Platense scores more

29%

Gimnasia L.P. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Pintado

Gimnasia L.P. · D

8.5

Match Events

30'

Jan Hurtado

37'

Fernando Juárez

39'

M. Melluso← P. Silva Torrejon

54'

E. Roldan← F. Juarez

60'

Nicolás Orsini

63'

F. Minerva← F. Zapiola

63'

I. Schor← G. Mainero

63'

R. Martinez← N. Orsini

73'

Bautista Merlini

73'

S. Toloza← A. Lotti

77'

N. Garayalde← G. Suso

78'

S. Villarreal← P. De Blasis

78'

I. Mammini← Jan Hurtado

83'

L. Mamut← B. Merlini

84'

Bautista Barros Schelotto

90+5'

‪Ignacio Schor

90'

N. Garayalde↳ J. Pintado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaPlatense

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots9

13Corners3

8Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target5

5Off Target4

7Blocked0

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

459Total Passes271

379Accurate Passes175

83%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0