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Platense vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
N. Bertolo 45'
C. Pavón 90+4'
D. González 53'
N. Briasco 23'
8/26/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Platense43%
×Draw31%
Boca Juniors26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.10
Boca Juniors
0.79

Platense creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Platense
1.05
Boca Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Platense
0.67
Boca Juniors
1.15

finishing

Platense-0.34scores less
Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Platense or draw
74%
Platense or Boca Juniors
69%
Draw or Boca Juniors
57%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
18%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
67%
Platense 2+ goals
30%
Platense 3+ goals
10%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
55%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
19%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
62%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.67 · 17 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.05 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Platense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Platense scores more
43%
level
31%
Boca Juniors scores more
26%

Platense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
N. BriascoBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · F
7.6

Match Events

23'
N. Briasco↳ C. Izquierdoz
30'
F. Baldassarra← M. Bogado
45'
N. Bertolo↳ F. Monzón
48'
Facundo Curuchet
53'
D. González
67'
Agustín Sandez
72'
M. Tissera← F. Curuchet
72'
P. Gerzel← N. Bertolo
76'
C. Medina← D. González
76'
E. Almendra← A. Molinas
81'
N. Zeineddin← F. Monzón
81'
H. Lamberti← I. Gómez
82'
C. Pavón← N. Briasco
90+1'
Hernán Lamberti
90+1'
J. Campuzano← J. Ramírez
90+4'
C. Pavón↳ J. Campuzano

Possession

36%Platense

Shots

7Platense

Pass accuracy

46%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseBoca
Overview
36%Possession64%
7Total Shots15
2Corners3
13Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots15
2On Target5
3Off Target6
2Blocked4
2Inside Box8
5Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
303Total Passes561
202Accurate Passes451
67%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls17
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Platense vs Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors beat Platense 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 26, 2021.

Goals: N. Briasco (23'), N. Bertolo (45'), D. González (53'), C. Pavón (90+4').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.