Boca Juniors 2–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Boca Juniors

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Platense

Ó. Romero 43', 12'

N. Morgantini 55'

8/7/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Boca Juniors50%

×Draw27%

Platense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boca JuniorsExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.86

Boca Juniors

1.43

Platense

0.86

Boca Juniors creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

1.52

creates per match

0.80

0.92

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Boca Juniors

1.52

Platense

0.80

allows per match

Boca Juniors

0.92

Platense

1.33

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par

Platense+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw

77%

Boca Juniors or Platense

73%

Draw or Platense

50%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

25%

Platense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

76%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

42%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

17%

Platense 1+ goals

58%

Platense 2+ goals

21%

Platense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

69%

Platense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Platense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Platense attack 0.80 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Boca Juniors scores more

50%

level

27%

Platense scores more

23%

Boca Juniors at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Ó. Romero

Boca Juniors · F

9.2

Match Events

12'

20'

43'

46'

53'

55'

59'

64'

J. Esquivel← H. Tijanovich

68'

G. Suso

69'

N. Figal← F. Roncaglia

70'

M. Payero← G. Fernández

71'

I. Schor← J. Pignani

76'

A. Molinas← J. Ramírez

76'

N. Orsini← L. Vázquez

81'

83'

83'

83'

84'

85'

87'

H. Ruiz Díaz← M. Zárate

88'

C. Medina← Ó. Romero

90+4'

C. Medina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BocaPlatense

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots7

8Corners1

16Fouls19

Shots

20Total Shots7

6On Target1

6Off Target4

8Blocked2

8Inside Box3

12Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

355Total Passes278

275Accurate Passes191

77%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls19

4Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 2–1 Platense

Boca Juniors beat Platense 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 7, 2022.

Goals: Ó. Romero (12', 43'), N. Morgantini (55').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

Boca Juniors vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 2–1 Platense