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Platense Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res — Reserve League 2022

Platense Res.
Platense Res.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Estudiantes La Plata Res
8/15/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Platense Res.29%
×Draw30%
Estudiantes La Plata Res40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense Res.
0.92
Estudiantes La Plata Res
1.13

Estudiantes La Plata Res creates 23% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 62 away

creates per match

Platense Res.
0.86
Estudiantes La Plata Res
1.13

allows per match

Platense Res.
1.14
Estudiantes La Plata Res
0.97

finishing

Platense Res.+0.00on par
Estudiantes La Plata Res+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense Res. ↓

Estudiantes La Plata Res →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Platense Res. or draw
60%
Platense Res. or Estudiantes La Plata Res
70%
Draw or Estudiantes La Plata Res
71%

Winning margin

Platense Res. wins by 2+
10%
Estudiantes La Plata Res wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Platense Res. 1+ goals
60%
Platense Res. 2+ goals
23%
Platense Res. 3+ goals
7%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 1+ goals
68%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 2+ goals
31%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Platense Res. (draw refunded)
42%
Estudiantes La Plata Res (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense Res. at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

Estudiantes La Plata Res away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense Res. attack 0.86 + Estudiantes La Plata Res defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Estudiantes La Plata Res attack 1.13 + Platense Res. defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Platense Res. scores more
29%
level
30%
Estudiantes La Plata Res scores more
40%

Estudiantes La Plata Res at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estudiantes La Plata Res will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platense Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res

Estudiantes La Plata Res beat Platense Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on August 15, 2024.