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Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Platense Res. — Reserve League 2022

Estudiantes La Plata Res
Estudiantes La Plata Res
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platense Res.
Platense Res.
9/5/2022Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Estudiantes La Plata Res52%
×Draw25%
Platense Res.22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes La Plata Res
1.58
Platense Res.
0.94

Estudiantes La Plata Res creates 68% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 62 away

creates per match

Estudiantes La Plata Res
1.57
Platense Res.
0.90

allows per match

Estudiantes La Plata Res
0.97
Platense Res.
1.58

finishing

Estudiantes La Plata Res+0.00on par
Platense Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes La Plata Res ↓

Platense Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estudiantes La Plata Res or draw
78%
Estudiantes La Plata Res or Platense Res.
75%
Draw or Platense Res.
48%

Winning margin

Estudiantes La Plata Res wins by 2+
27%
Platense Res. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Estudiantes La Plata Res 1+ goals
79%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 2+ goals
47%
Estudiantes La Plata Res 3+ goals
21%
Platense Res. 1+ goals
61%
Platense Res. 2+ goals
24%
Platense Res. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes La Plata Res (draw refunded)
70%
Platense Res. (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes La Plata Res at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

Platense Res. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes La Plata Res attack 1.57 + Platense Res. defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Platense Res. attack 0.90 + Estudiantes La Plata Res defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Estudiantes La Plata Res scores more
52%
level
25%
Platense Res. scores more
22%

Estudiantes La Plata Res at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Estudiantes La Plata Res will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Platense Res.

Platense Res. beat Estudiantes La Plata Res 1-0 in Reserve League on September 5, 2022.